Tri-Lakes – Mother Nature really kicked things off, starting on March the 11th, when she gave the central regions of the United States a good soaking. Then, after a one day respite, it was looking like she wanted another go at it on the 16th…
March 16 forecast – NWS – ‘Expect a warm and quiet day on Tuesday with highs in middle 60’s to near 70. However, as quick as one system exits the region, another shortwave trough digs into the central CONUS (Continental United States) early Wednesday.
Current model guidance suggests showers and thunderstorms will spread across the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday, before exiting Thursday morning. This system could support additional flooding concerns given the recent heavy rainfall. Secondly, the models are beginning to come into agreement on the potential for severe weather. The risk will be supported by adequate shear, low- level moisture, and lift along a warm front boundary lifting north. One potential limiting factor could be instability. However, guidance appears to bring in a marginal amount of instability (<500 J/kg) overnight Tuesday that could be supportive enough given other environmental factors. Hail will be the primary threat with elevated convection, but all modes of severe cannot be ruled out if some thunderstorms are able to become surface-based. This will need to be looked at it more detail with future forecasts. At this time, a slight risk for severe thunderstorms is being advertised for west of the Highway 65 corridor and a marginal risk elsewhere.’
March 17 forecast – ‘For late Wednesday morning into the afternoon, expect the surface low to continue to track east/southeast into southern Missouri. Additional lift will be aided by the main upper level wave sweeping across the Mid Mississippi Valley. At this time the primary area of focus for strong to severe thunderstorms will be along and south of the Interstate 44 corridor. The highest area of concern will be across portions of south central Missouri (along the Missouri/Arkansas border) where better destabilization will take place through the early afternoon on Wednesday. Current expectations are that the environment will support the development of super cells. The primary hazards will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Additionally, a tornado threat will exist, especially as the thunderstorms mature across south central Missouri in the mid- afternoon hours on Wednesday. The severe potential will be monitored closely over the next 24 hours.’
‘Swell’, was the only thought I could muster after seeing this bit of news. I was wondering if, yet again, two local parks near my town of Forsyth Missouri would flood out for like the third year in a row? Below is a snapshot of all three reservoirs as of Mar 15;
As of March 15th, the area was on the same trend line as last year when both Shadowrock and River Run Parks flooded out for the rest of the year.
I’ve often wondered if there might be a better way to manage the Tri-Lakes water levels that are currently being handled by the Army Corps of Engineers. Perhaps a canal system such as is found in parts of California…