Hopefully, everyone living in southwest and the central parts of Missouri will have made sure their personal weather alert radios are checked and are on! – DanO
Wed, March 17 – 6AM – NWS – ‘A large cluster of showers and thunderstorms was approaching extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks from the west early this morning. This activity will bring multiple hazards to the region.
A Flash Flood Watch has been posted. Wet soil conditions combined with elevated stream flows and cold season vegetation still in place will facilitate efficient runoff for flash flooding of small streams, creeks, and rivers. Low water crossings and low lying roadways will likely become flooded today and into tonight. Some state highways remain flooded from the previous rainfall last weekend.
We are also monitoring the potential for a few organized thunderstorms early this morning. The warm front remains across northern Arkansas, therefore, these initial storms this morning are expected to remain well elevated. They will also have a difficult time reaching for lower parcels that would provide sufficient instability for anything too robust. However, strong wind shear and low freezing levels will be favorable for a some hail up to the size of quarters with a few of the more intense storms. Some stronger wind gusts cannot be ruled out this morning.
As we progress into today, a surface low and warm front translates across southern Missouri, which could create a second round of thunderstorms. It’s yet to be determined if there is a risk for boundary layer based convection. Since we are dealing with morning convection, this could create a messy situation as far as the environment goes.’
Of some encouraging note for water levels, the watershed areas around the Tri-Lakes system of reservoirs seemed to get through the first round of rainfall in fairly good shape with most of the rainfall impacts occurring to the north!
12:00 Noon – ‘What we do know, as we approach the afternoon hours is synoptically we will have a favorable pattern for organized thunderstorms. If morning convection clears the area soon enough for the environment to recharge, then shear structure and lift will be favorable for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two. The best chances for more impactful severe weather will occur over south central Missouri. This area is outlined in an “enhanced” risk for severe weather today.
[Area spotters have been activated for all of the Ozarks for this afternoon and early evening!]
2:00 PM – A tornado watch #34 was issued for Taney County and surrounding towns. Valid from 2:00 PM to 8:00 PM This date.from
5:30 PM – While some time has to pass yet, the author is not seeing that much of a threat as it pertains to Taney County. Any severe weather looked like it might occur after the 6PM hour. There had been as many as 3 weather radar indications of tornadic activity in McDonald, Newton and Barry Counties.
6:30 PM – The Taney County area was looking to see some impact from a frontal system that will be swinging through the area by the 7Pm hour. The same system had spawned number tornadic radar signatures in some counties to the west of Taney.
6:55 PM – Did Taney County duck a bullet? Why yes, I think we did! Looked like all we would be getting would be a decent amount of rain!
8:00 PM – Now that we got through the first two waves, we get another chance at more of the stuff (without the tornadoes) as the storms will wrap around the center of low pressure and possibly come at us again overnight! (Did I mention the chance for rain mixed with snow on Thursday morning)?
See more weather at www.taneyweather.com